Rio Tinto technical analysis
From its late-June 2025 low at $100.75, Rio Tinto staged a powerful rally of more than 94% to hit a fresh record high of $195.84 in early June 2026. The surge was fuelled by resilient commodity demand and a notable rotation from overvalued banks into undervalued resource stocks throughout fiscal year (FY) 2025.
At the start of FY2026, that trend has reversed, with the materials sector underperforming relative to the banks. It remains unclear whether this is simple profit-taking or the start of a new trade, but either way it has weighed heavily on resource stocks. The hawkish June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting also boosted the United States (US) dollar and added further pressure on mining names.
The pullback from $195.84 to the recent low at $155.20 appears corrective in nature. This suggests that once the current correction runs its course, the underlying uptrend should resume, with scope for a retest and eventual break of the $195.84 record high.
In the near term, the $155 area remains key support, coming from the 200-day moving average (MA) at $157.69 and the recent swing low. The broader uptrend remains intact as long as the stock holds above this zone, although the market will want clean earnings and guidance before committing to taking the stock higher on its own merits.
A sustained break below the $155 support area would open the way for a deeper decline toward the $142.20 low struck on 23 March.