This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Glencore (GLNCY), one of the world’s biggest commodity producers and traders, rallied 3.4% in Wednesday’s London trading after delivering the kind of earnings rebound that grabs investors’ attention. First-half adjusted EBITDA rocketed 86% to $10.1 billion, revenue surged 49% to $174.43 billion and the company swung from a $655 million loss a year ago to a $4.4 billion profit. Higher commodity prices certainly helped, but the real money came from something Glencore knows better than almost anyone else: thriving when global energy markets become messy.
That’s exactly what happened. Marketing adjusted EBIT more than doubled to $3.3 billion, while the industrial business lifted adjusted EBITDA 72% to $6.5 billion. The Glencore’s energy-trading EBIT exploded to $2.66 billion from just $40 million a year earlier as turmoil across oil, LNG and shipping markets created a trader’s dream environment. At the same time, crude and fuel trading volumes climbed roughly 24% to around 5.2 million barrels per day. When volatility rises, Glencore doesn’t just survive itit often turns it into a profit engine.
The cash kept flowing. Net debt fell by about $1 billion to $10.2 billion even after $4 billion of capital spending. Management rewarded shareholders with another $1 billion special distribution and a fresh $500 million share buyback, lifting announced capital returns for 2026 to roughly $3.5 billion. Based on current commodity prices and stronger expected second-half volumes, Glencore sees illustrative full-year adjusted EBITDA reaching about $19.7 billion. The company is also targeting an Australian secondary listing in October, potentially opening the door to a broader pool of mining-focused investors. The market is clearly buying the storybut the next test is whether these monster trading profits can stick once energy markets calm down.
The GF Value chart adds a note of caution. Glencore trades at $15.43, about 17.6% above its GF Value estimate of $13.12. That premium says investors are no longer paying for what the company earnedthey’re paying for what they believe it can keep earning. If commodity prices stay firm and trading remains unusually profitable, the premium could hold. If volatility fades, expectations may become a tougher hurdle than the business itself.