- Asset managers Hashdex and Charles Schwab said Bitcoin’s weakness is a temporary phenomenon driven by capital rotation and market cycles, rather than a prolonged downturn.
- Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage said money has shifted into AI and IPO trades, but digital-asset fundamentals are strengthening as stablecoin transaction volume rises, tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) expand, institutional infrastructure broadens, and the U.S. regulatory environment improves.
- Jim Ferriolo said the Bitcoin halving cycle still resembles past patterns despite rising institutional participation and the launch of spot ETFs, though its impact will diminish as the asset matures and volatility declines.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Digital assets such as Bitcoin have lagged this year even as U.S. stocks advanced, but the weakness appears temporary and a rebound remains possible, according to a recent analysis.
CoinDesk reported on July 5 that asset managers Hashdex and Charles Schwab said in a recent report that Bitcoin’s weakness reflects capital rotation and market cycles rather than a long-term bearish trend.
Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage said investor attention has recently shifted to artificial intelligence infrastructure, initial public offerings and interest-rate expectations, slowing inflows into digital-asset markets. “Capital follows attention and narrative,” he said. “Right now, AI-related investments and the IPO market are absorbing investor money.”
Even so, digital-asset market fundamentals are strengthening, Kerbage said. Stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of this year has already exceeded last year’s full-year total, while the market for tokenized real-world assets, or RWAs, has grown more than 60% since the start of the year. He also pointed to expanding institutional infrastructure across banks, brokerages and payments companies, along with an improving U.S. regulatory environment.
Charles Schwab said Bitcoin’s halving cycle also remains intact. Jim Ferriolo, head of digital-asset research and strategy at Charles Schwab, said Bitcoin is tracking a pattern similar to previous post-halving periods despite increased institutional participation and the launch of spot exchange-traded funds.
Still, Ferriolo said the halving cycle is less a law of the market than a pattern rooted in investor psychology. As the asset class matures and volatility declines over time, the cycle’s influence will gradually diminish, he added.