Copper is trading just above $14,000 a ton in London, roughly $500 shy of its all-time high set in January, and Wall Street thinks it has further to run.
Goldman Sachs lifted its end-2026 copper price target by more than 10% this week, raising its forecast to $13,735/ton from a previous $12,465/ton. The revision is driven by a weaker-than-expected supply outlook: the bank slashed its global mine supply estimate by 350,000 tons, citing ongoing operational disruptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg complex and Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Neither mine is expected back at full capacity before 2028. Grasberg, the world’s second-largest copper mine, has been recovering from a September 2025 underground flood that prompted operator Freeport-McMoRan to declare force majeure. Kamoa-Kakula, once on track to produce 420,000 tons of copper this year, has revised its 2026 guidance down to 330,000 tons following seismic disruptions in 2025 that slowed the mine’s ramp-up.
The ripple effect outside the US market is significant. Goldman now estimates the copper deficit outside the United States could exceed 640,000 tons this year, up from a prior forecast of just 60,000 tons. “US copper imports exceeded expectations during the first half of 2026, and we expect imports to accelerate again next month, supported by currently available arbitrage opportunities,” Goldman analysts wrote in the note.
The continued wave of US copper imports reflects, in part, lingering uncertainty over US trade policy. A tariff review on refined copper imports is still pending, and Goldman’s base case assumes the US continues to delay imposing such duties. Citigroup pointed to those same tensions in its own upgrade, noting that “ongoing concerns about potential US tariffs on refined copper could continue supporting market sentiment at least until the trade policy review at the end of June.”
Citi’s price targets are more aggressive. The bank sees copper hitting $14,500/ton this month, and $15,000 within the next year. That would put the metal well beyond its January record. The bank also flagged weaker supply growth from mines and “resilient” demand driven by AI infrastructure and the energy transition.
HSBC added a broader macro overlay, warning that commodities face a “super-squeeze” stemming from the Strait of Hormuz closure. A prolonged disruption, the bank said, risks further tightening supply chains across commodity markets.
On the demand side, structural drivers remain intact. Grid expansion, electric vehicles, data center construction, and clean energy investment continue to absorb copper at a pace that the market struggled to meet even before the supply shocks. Copper is up roughly 10% year to date on the London Metal Exchange, outperforming gold over the same period.
With Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula both constrained through at least 2028, and tariff uncertainty keeping US stockpiling elevated, the tightness looks structural rather than cyclical. The question for the second half of the year isn’t whether supply is tight — it clearly is — it’s whether demand from China holds up enough to push prices all the way to Citi’s $15,000 target.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com