Bitcoin closed above short-term overhead resistance, but the source still expects a pullback because the recent hourly saw-wave/retrace pattern remains, two fresh bearish divergences have appeared, and the Stop Loss Hunting window is active. Ethereum remains at support risk, rising Bitcoin dominance could pressure ALTs, US spot indexes made fresh highs even as futures cooled, and Gold finally broke out alongside a stronger metals complex.
Bitcoin closes above resistance, yet the pullback thesis remains
BTC confirmed a close above short-term overhead resistance, and OBV is moving up, but that OBV improvement came on falling volume. RSI pushed into a historical support line that failed on the prior two tests. More importantly, the hourly saw-wave/retrace pattern is still visible, two fresh bearish divergences printed on the hourly, and the market remains inside the Stop Loss Hunting Alert window. The breakout is real, yet the source still expects a pullback rather than treating the close as a clean all-clear.
Ethereum barely escapes support as Bitcoin dominance pressures ALTs
ETH barely escaped short-term support on Wednesday’s push, but it failed another break of TBO Resistance. The analysis is still leaning toward ETH losing this support level and falling lower. At the same time, BTC dominance is moving up while inside its Cloud; if it keeps moving higher, that should put more pressure on ALTs. Dominance measures market share, not spot price, so this is an ALT-pressure read rather than a direct BTC price prediction.
Dominance and broad-market internals keep the crypto tape defensive
ETH dominance bounced from the Fast line, but the source does not expect that push to continue, while SOL dominance looks strong bearish. TOTALES OBV tagged its white moving average, which is resistance for now, and OTHERS/BTC confirms the higher BTC-dominance read. Together these signals support a defensive view of ALTs without claiming that dominance alone dictates Bitcoin’s spot direction.
DXY softens as US spot indexes reach new highs
DXY closed lower but remains above long-term support. If that support breaks, the source expects TradFi indexes to push higher and harder. S&P futures had already surged and then fizzled on Wednesday, yet the spot SPX chart remained strong bullish and reached a new all-time high, as did DJI. NDX is still above the daily Cloud but has two lower gaps to fill. The VIX only wicked into its Cloud, which the source described as nothing serious.
Gold breaks out while PAXG/BTC clears major resistance
Gold finally delivered a bullish breakout, rising more than 4%, moving above the first resistance fan line, and printing a TBO Close Short. It is only a few percent from the weekly Fast line, where the source expects a tag followed by a backoff. Silver also gained about 4% and printed a Close Short, platinum pierced overhead resistance near its weekly Fast line, copper printed a new high and a likely exhaustion breakout, and uranium printed a Close Short. The strongest cross-asset move was PAXG/BTC, which closed above the 0.618 Fib level, long-term resistance, and the Cloud.
ALT support failures and exhaustion setups demand selectivity
SOL is directly on support and at risk of losing it, while ADA still has not pulled back and the source expects that pullback today. PUMP’s second breakout increasingly looks like exhaustion, MORPHO printed a TBO Open Short, and ATOM started rejecting toward support after failing to clear the Fast line. If LIT tags the 0.618 Fib level, the source sees a short setup where it overlaps newly lost ascending support. JASMY is about to drop below TBO Support, while STX and VVV also carry support-loss warnings. These are risk conditions and conditional setups, not guarantees.
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