New Zealand’s avocado sector is increasingly turning to the Asian market to grow its exports on the back of growing demand and optimism about the free trade agreement with India.
The focus on Asia comes as exports to its largest international market, Australia, trend lower, according to Rabobank’s Global Avocado Update for 2026.
New Zealand’s avocado exports in the 2025-2026 season – which ran from September through to March – reached 3.445 billion trays, down around 9% year-on-year due to wind damage and constrained market windows.
Australia remained the sector’s largest export market, at 750,000 trays or 22% of market share. However, declining volumes mean the industry is significantly less reliant on that market than five years ago when it accounted for more than two-thirds of total Kiwi avocado exports, RaboResearch senior analyst and report coauthor Jen Corkran said.
“To offset weaker Australian demand, the sector continues to diversify, with strong growth across Asia.
“Exports to South Korea surged by 70% year on year to 625,000 trays in the 2025-2026 season, while shipments to China, Hong Kong and India nearly doubled, and exports to Taiwan increased by 50%.”
There is also growing optimism that the recent New Zealand-India trade agreement will support further export growth into the subcontinent over time.
“Avocado exports into India are already growing strongly and further growth is now expected given the new trade deal will see tariffs on avocados – and other fruit – phased out over the next 10 years,” she said.
Global avocado exports remain on a strong growth trajectory off the back of robust output from longstanding production “heavyweights”, and rising production across a host of emerging players.
Peru is the dominant contributor to this growth alongside Kenya, Spain, Colombia and South Africa. These volumes are expected to increase further in the 2026-2027 season. However, the developing El Niño is expected to heighten and unevenly distribute weather risks.
On the demand side, some established markets are showing signs of maturity while new players continue to increase demand.
“Global avocado demand continues to display a dual-speed dynamic, with mature markets approaching saturation, while emerging consumption regions sustain structurally higher growth,” Corkran said.
Mexico and Chile remain clear outliers in per capita/ per annum availability at 14kg and 9kg respectively, suggesting limited headroom relative to emerging consumption regions.
“In contrast, steady expansion across large population markets like the EU, which reached 2.24kg per capita in 2025, indicates significant growth potential. Countries such as Italy, Germany and Turkey are also exhibiting rapid relative growth, pointing to broad-based adoption rather than niche consumption.”