Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has outlined a compelling historical parallel between Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and gold ETFs, suggesting that investors in the newer products could experience a similar mix of rapid early success, extended periods of disappointment, and eventual recovery.
In his latest commentary, Balchunas argues that gold’s more than two-decade track record offers one of the clearest roadmaps available for understanding how Bitcoin ETFs might evolve.
Both gold and Bitcoin ETFs serve as straightforward wrappers around assets that produce no income.
Unlike stock or bond funds, which benefit from corporate earnings or interest payments, these vehicles derive their performance almost entirely from shifts in investor sentiment and demand for the underlying commodity or digital asset.
Bitcoin ETFs Likely to Mirror Gold’s History of Triumph and Pain.. New from me on how gold ETFs’ 22-year history may offer the closest roadmap yet for Bitcoin ETF investors. Both are wrappers around non-yielding stores of value that generate no cash flow, leaving investor… pic.twitter.com/3C4tZYPLCp
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 17, 2026
This structural similarity means price movements and asset flows can be highly sensitive to changing market psychology rather than traditional fundamentals.
The flagship gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), provides a vivid case study. Launched in the mid-2000s, it quickly captured widespread attention.
By 2011, its assets under management had grown so large that, for a single day, GLD briefly surpassed the massive SPY S&P 500 ETF to become the world’s largest exchange-traded fund.
Shortly afterward, however, enthusiasm cooled. GLD spent roughly eight years in relative stagnation, battling outflows and struggling to regain its earlier momentum.
Data shared by Balchunas illustrates these swings clearly. Since 2011, GLD’s assets have moved through several distinct cycles: rising to approximately $76 billion early in the period before falling sharply to around $22 billion by the mid-2010s.
A later recovery pushed assets to roughly $84 billion near 2020, only for another downturn to bring them down to about $48 billion in 2022.
More recently, renewed interest has driven assets sharply higher, approaching or exceeding $190 billion.Balchunas sees a striking resemblance in the Bitcoin ETF space.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), for example, experienced explosive early growth, reaching $100 billion in assets for a brief window before a market pullback set in.
Like GLD in its heyday, this surge occurred amid intense demand that temporarily outpaced available supply.
Because new ETF shares cannot be created instantly in unlimited quantities, strong inflows can produce outsized effects on both asset levels and prices.
The challenge, he notes, is that such demand tends to arrive in waves rather than providing consistent, steady support.
Despite the potential for painful drawdowns, Balchunas highlights an important long-term pattern in the gold ETF experience.
Each successive cycle has ultimately established a new high-water mark for assets under management.
The trajectory has been uneven—“two steps forward, one step back”—yet the overall direction has been upward across multiple decades.
For Bitcoin ETF investors, the message is one of tempered optimism paired with realistic expectations. Spectacular gains may be followed by extended periods of underperformance and tests of patience, much as gold ETF holders endured after the 2011 peak.
Those willing to maintain a long-term perspective, however, could ultimately benefit from progressively larger scale if history continues to rhyme.
The comparison underscores that both asset classes remain sentiment-driven rather than cash-flow-driven.
While this dynamic can amplify volatility, it has not prevented gold ETFs from achieving repeated record highs over time. Bitcoin ETF participants may face a similar journey, one that rewards resilience alongside conviction in the underlying thesis.