In the modern era of Australian politics, Federal Budgets usually sink like a stone.
When they don’t, it is almost always because people are throwing stones.
Budgets are unveiled on a Tuesday night and by the following weekend the national conversation routinely moves on to other weighty matters, such as how a bunch of bouncy Bulgarian balladeers could possibly beat our Delta for the crystal microphone at Eurovision.
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But that hasn’t happened with this one.
People are still talking about it.
To misquote Oscar Wilde, the only thing worse for a Budget than not being talked about is being talked about.
Jim Chalmers and Anthony Albanese knew they would be spending a fair amount of political capital with what they believed was a necessary realignment of the tax system to address creeping imbalances against younger generations.
But they didn’t expect to be buying a multi-generational backlash over measures now widely perceived to be unfair and unnecessary.
Much of that backlash is based on inaccurate and unfair analysis of the real impact of the Budget measures.
And yet the Government is having immense difficulty convincing the electorate of that.
Why? Partly because voters don’t believe much of what governments say.
That used to be less true of this Government after it rose to power with an absolute commitment to keeping its word, even if doing so appeared like an act of self-harm.
In breaking its promises on negative gearing and capital gains tax, it gambled that the electorate would accept that it was all for the greater good.
It hasn’t. At least, not so far.
The measures are being equally rejected and ridiculed.
Albanese is trying to laugh off the viral social media campaign mocking him as the effective partner of small businesses around the country.
But that voters actually believe the Government is muscling its way in on half the profits of hairdressers, bakers, plumbers and pilates teachers is far from funny.
The narrative that sticks with average Australians is one of a government that responds to aspiration and dedication with salivation and taxation.
And much of it is not true.
The blanket memes would have us believe that the tax rate for small businesses is going to rise from 30 per cent to 47 per cent.
They also suggest the CGT changes mean they will lose 50 per cent of their capital gains to taxation when they eventually sell their businesses.
Significant concessions will still apply to all small businesses, defined as those with aggregated annual turnovers below $2 million or with net assets below $6m.
Any small business that has been owned for 15 years or more will retain the most generous of concessions — a 100 per cent CGT exemption.
For those sold within 15 years, the capital gain is automatically reduced by 50 per cent or indexation — whichever is greater — through what’s called the Small Business Active Asset Reduction measure.
The remaining capital gain can be reduced by a further 50 per cent if it qualifies for what’s known as the “active asset reduction”, which applies to assets that were actively used in the conduct of the business.
In addition, the first $500,000 of capital gain is tax free if the individual is aged over 55 and for someone aged below 55 if they direct it into a superannuation fund.
And on top of all that, the entire capital gain can be deferred for up to two years before being taxed at all. That allows it to be reinvested in a new business venture in the meantime if so desired.
These are what we call facts.
They don’t fit in the limited space of an internet meme.
At present, the Government is exhibiting a very particular inability to make most people aware of them and to convince people that they are true.
And this Budget simply will not sink from the national conversation until the Government finds a way to make these facts sink in.
Mark Riley is the Seven Network’s political editor