In price news, a total of $7.5Bn in BTC and ETH options contracts is set to expire on Deribit on May 29, 2026. Bitcoin price accounts for $6.2Bn across 84,112 contracts, while accounts for $1.29Bn across 643,639 contracts.
This expiry is smaller than April’s $9.87Bn, with Bitcoin trading at $73,350 and Ethereum at $2,003, both below their Max Pain levels of $75,000 and $2,200, respectively.
Bitcoin’s Put/Call Ratio is 0.84, indicating a slightly bullish stance, while Ethereum’s is 0.74, though many calls are now out of the money due to recent price drops.
Additionally, institutional ETF selling has amounted to $2Bn since May 14, further distancing both assets from their Max Pain targets ahead of settlement.
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC and ETH Options Expiry: The $7.5Bn Notional Breakdown and Max Pain Mechanics
Max Pain is the strike price at which the total open interest in options results in the maximum loss for buyers and the minimum payout for sellers at expiry.
As dealers hedge their positions in the last hours of a monthly settlement, their activity can drive prices toward this level.
For Bitcoin, the $75,000 Max Pain sits $1,650 above the current price, meaning dealers short below that level will experience buying pressure. For Ethereum, the $2,200 Max Pain is supported by over 70,000 puts, creating a strong liquidity node.
Analysts note that Bitcoin has fallen below its key Gamma Exposure zone, weakening the support from open interest.
Implied volatility remains low, with May contracts at around 20%, suggesting that large participants are not aggressively hedging and are betting on support levels holding rather than on a deeper decline.
Open Interest Distribution: Where Call and Put Walls Are Concentrated Heading Into Expiry
Source: Coinglass
Bitcoin’s open interest shows the heaviest call concentration between $80,000 and $85,000, which is now out of the money at $73,350, reducing call-side gamma that would typically stabilize dealer hedging flows. The $75,000 strike has become the nearest concentration point as settlement approaches.
For Ethereum, the $2,200 strike has over 70,000 puts, creating a significant liquidity node that serves as a ceiling for any pre-expiry recovery.
The $2,500 and $3,000 strikes have call activity, but are far from the current $2,003 spot price. Additionally, the $2,000 strike is identified as a gamma concentration point providing both psychological and mechanical support.
Overall, the 0.84 Put/Call Ratio for Bitcoin and 0.74 for Ethereum indicate a bullish position despite recent price declines. The upcoming June quarterly expiry, which holds about 24% of the remaining open interest, will be the next key derivatives event after today’s settlement.
EXPLORE:
Macro Backdrop: How ETF Outflows and Institutional Selling Frame the Expiry’s Directional Risk
The $2Bn in institutional ETF selling since May 14 is compressing both assets below their Max Pain levels ahead of expiry. Although there was some institutional demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, that bid has sharply reversed in the two weeks leading to today’s settlement.
Such significant ETF outflows typically hamper spot price recoveries, as redemption-driven selling pressure exceeds dealer hedging flows.
Additionally, rising Treasury yields have hindered crypto rallies by increasing the discount rate for risk assets and attracting capital to fixed-income alternatives.
With implied volatility (IV) below 40% despite Bitcoin’s decline, the options market isn’t anticipating a spike in volatility, meaning the expiry outcome will largely dictate whether the June gamma structure turns bullish or bearish.
***
Looking to start your trading day ahead of the curve?
Get up to speed before the bell with Bull Whisper—a sharp, daily premarket newsletter packed with key news, market-moving updates, and actionable insights for traders.
Start your day with an edge. Subscribe to Bull Whisper using this link.