Commerzbank AG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast upwards for the coming quarters, citing prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting pressure on global inventories.
The German bank now expects Brent to average $90 per barrel by the end of September and $85 by the end of the year, up from its previous forecast of $80 for both periods.
“We have revised our forecast for the price of Brent crude oil slightly upwards for the coming quarters. We now expect a price of $90 per barrel by the end of September and $85 by the end of the year. Our previous forecast had been $80 for both quarters,” said Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank.
The revised outlook assumes the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to normal shipping for another two months until early August.
Even if a US-Iran agreement is reached immediately, experts say it would take several weeks to clear mines and resume safe navigation.
Iran has reportedly been given 30 days for demining operations.
In the meantime, stock levels will continue to fall. The additional demand resulting from the need to replenish stocks on a massive scale will therefore be correspondingly larger, which is likely to absorb the oil supply returning to the market from the Gulf region.
He added that oil production in the Gulf is likely to stay below pre-war levels for some time due to ramp-up delays and infrastructure damage.
“We therefore do not expect oil prices to return to pre-war levels in the foreseeable future,” Fritsch noted.
Gas prices remain high even after Strait of Hormuz reopens
Meanwhile, European natural gas prices continue to trade at elevated levels despite ceasefire developments in the Middle East.
On Thursday, prices rose to EUR 49 per MWh following reports of renewed US attacks on an Iranian military base.
Unlike oil, gas prices showed little relief even after the ceasefire extension was announced.
“The problem is not only that no LNG is currently flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, but also that any further escalation could theoretically cause further damage to LNG facilities, potentially restricting production capacity even more than before,” said Norman Liebke, FX and commodity analyst at Commerzbank.
Experts estimate a potential 20% reduction in capacity at Qatari LNG facilities for the next three to five years.
Europe is currently in its critical gas storage replenishment phase, making the situation more challenging.
“According to the research unit BNEF, it will now be difficult to reach the 80% target by the end of September,” Liebke said.
Commerzbank’s base scenario assumes the Strait reopens at the end of July, leading to storage levels of only around 70%.
As a result, we expect that even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the European gas price is likely to remain well above pre-war levels at around 50 EUR per MWh through the end of the year.
Higher LNG demand in Asia this summer due to El Niño conditions poses an additional upside risk.
Global energy investment is set to hit a record $3.4 trillion this year as the second major energy crisis in five years shifts priorities strongly toward energy security, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest annual report.
“In its annual report on global energy investments, the IEA notes that, with the second major energy crisis in five years, the focus of investment has shifted further toward energy security,” said Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank.
Investment is heavily concentrated on electrification and diversification of supplies.
Only just over a third of total spending is directed toward fossil fuels. Investment in the oil sector is declining for the third consecutive year, while spending on new gas-fired power plants has reached a ten-year high.
“Electricity demand is growing significantly, particularly in the US, driven by the expansion of data centers and artificial intelligence: as a result, orders for new gas-fired power plants climbed to a 25-year high in 2025,” Lambrecht highlighted.
The combination of higher oil and gas price forecasts, persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and strong underlying demand for secure energy supplies suggests markets will remain volatile and structurally supported through the remainder of 2026.
Analysts at Commerzbank expect prices to stay above pre-crisis levels even after shipping routes normalize, as inventory rebuilding and infrastructure recovery take considerable time.