Major food commodities: Vulnerability to climate change

Commodities facing greatest risks from climate change: overview

• Climate change reduces yields, increases crop disease and disrupts farming predictability
• Cocoa and corn highly vulnerable due to narrow climate conditions
• Palm oil, rice and wheat face drought, heat stress and yield volatility
• Sugarcane and soybeans depend heavily on water availability and stable rainfall
• Mitigation relies on resilient crop varieties, irrigation, soil management and technology

Few commodities are entirely safe from the impacts of climate change.

The rise in temperatures can impact yields and lower the quality of crops. Irregular weather patterns can make agriculture less predictable and more difficult to manage. Even crop disease can be worsened by the changing climate.

But some crops are more resilient to this than others. It is important for the food industry to understand the risks posed by the changing climate, so it can mitigate them.

Cocoa

How vulnerable is it? Cocoa is highly vulnerable to climate change. High prices of cocoa over the past few years have been closely linked to the impact of rising temperatures.

In West Africa, where around 60% of global cocoa production takes place, droughts, disease and irregular rainfall often exert downward pressure on yields, explains Justine White, market intelligence analyst at commodity intelligence platform Vesper.

Cocoa grows within a narrow temperature and rainfall range, and rising temperatures are reducing suitable growing areas.

How can the food industry mitigate this? To mitigate the impacts of climate change on cocoa, suggests White, the food industry should develop agroforestry systems that provide shade and reduce heat stress for crops, as well as improve irrigation and water management.

Beyond this, it should develop heat and drought-resistant cocoa varieties.

Some companies, such as Mars, are already developing climate-resistant cocoa using CRISPR.

Corn

How vulnerable is it? Corn is one of the most sensitive crops to climate change, according to Stephen Butler, CCO and co-founder of AI commodities prediction platform ChAI.

Corn is “highly sensitive to heat and erratic rainfall, especially around flowering and pollination,” he says.

How can the food industry mitigate this? To mitigate the impact of climate change on corn, growers should prioritise drought and heat-resistant varieties, ChAI’s Butler says, as well as improve soil moisture management and irrigation efficiency.

It is also crucial to protect the crop’s critical reproductive stages of flowering, pollination and early grain fill (the completion of growth and development in crop plants) through timing and agronomy.

Palm oil

How sensitive is it? Palm oil faces significant pressure from climate change. Major production areas in Malaysia and Indonesia face substantial drought risk, explains Gehrman Kosenkov, market intelligence analyst at Vesper.

More frequent El Niño events, which can disrupt weather patterns and raise temperatures, can in turn significantly reduce yields.

How can the food industry mitigate this? As with cocoa, the food industry can mitigate weather patterns’ risk to palm oil by breeding drought-tolerant varieties, suggests Kosenkov.

It can also manage soil and water retention better.

Rice

How vulnerable is it? Rice has significant vulnerability to climate change, according to ChAI’s Butler.

It needs a lot of water to grow and is therefore vulnerable to droughts.

Furthermore, it is exposed to heat stress and flooding risk.

How can the food industry mitigate this? As with corn, the impacts of climate change on rice can be mitigated through the prioritisation of drought and heat-resistant varieties, Butler explains.

As well as this, growers should improve irrigation efficiency and soil moisture management, and protect the crop at critical reproductive stages.

Wheat

How vulnerable is it? Wheat is vulnerable to both heat and drought, explains Butler, particularly during stem elongation, flowering and grain fill.

Drought frequency is increasing in several key wheat-producing regions, explains Vesper’s Kosenkov, including North America, the Black Sea, Australia and the EU. Climate variability increases the volatility of production year-to-year.

Winter wheat, which is sown in autumn, resumes growth in spring and is harvested in summer. Risk is concentrated during late frosts and spring heat, Butler explains.

How can the food industry mitigate this? Precision agriculture and moisture management can also mitigate the effects of weather patterns on wheat crops, as can expanded irrigation, where it is sustainable, says Kosenkov. Precision agriculture is a form of agriculture that technology to measure and analyse variations in the field.

As with other commodities, the food sector should produce varieties of wheat resistant to heat and drought, he recommends.

Sugarcane

How vulnerable is it? A lot of sugar’s vulnerability comes from its need for an abundance of water.

Droughts can therefore reduce yields and sugar content in sugarcane substantially, explains Vesper’s White.

Major sugar producers in Brazil and India have been affected by extreme weather events.

How can the food industry mitigate this? Securing water availability for irrigation and storage is important for sugarcane, says Butler.

Growers should optimise timing for sugar content and weather windows, and also strengthen mill and logistics resilience in order to cope with delayed or compressed harvests.

Improving weather forecasting and harvest planning can also mitigate the effects of climate change on the crop, says White, as can better soil health to retain moisture. She also suggests the use of drip irrigation, an irrigation method that delivers nutrients to the roots of crops.

Soybeans

How vulnerable are they? Soybeans are at risk from climate change, but only moderately so, according to Kosenkov.

Soybeans are exposed to drought and heat stress, and changes in rainfall patterns can also affect planting and harvesting.

The crop’s responses under elevated CO₂ are mixed, says Butler.

How can the food industry mitigate this? It is important to manage heat stress for soybeans at key productive stages, explains Butler.

The food industry should build flexibility around planting dates, as well as source from a variety of regions and latitudes to avoid concentration of weather risk.

Furthermore, says Kosenkov, soil carbon and moisture management should be improved, and precision agriculture technologies should be used.