Investing.com — Europe could face physical jet fuel shortages by June if the region can only replace half of its normal Middle East supplies due to the Iran war, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report.
The IEA said global jet fuel and kerosene demand averaged 7.8 million barrels per day in 2025, with Gulf exports representing the largest source to the global market at nearly 400,000 bpd.
Europe has the highest dependency on Middle East jet fuel, with the region supplying nearly 375,000 bpd, or 75%, of Europe’s net jet fuel imports, according to the report.
Stockpiled fuel levels vary across European countries. Spain, with ample stocks, is a net exporter of jet fuel, while Britain, the region’s largest consumer, imports 65% of its demand.
The IEA said if Europe manages to replace all of its Middle East imports, jet fuel stocks will adequately cover the agency’s assessment of 2026 demand.
Physical shortages and demand destruction would emerge at select airports if Europe’s jet fuel stocks drop below 23 days of demand cover. Europe’s stocks have not fallen below 29 days’ cover since 2020.
If Europe can only replace 75% of its Middle East volumes, there would be insufficient inventory to meet demand in summer months and stocks would drop below the 23-day level by August. If only 50% of the supply is replaceable, stocks will hit the 23-day level in June, the IEA said.
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