Copper extended gains above $14,000/t in Wednesday’s session, trading close to its all‑time high of $14,527.50 set in late January. Supply-side risks continue to dominate price action. Firmer spot demand in China and tightening conditions across refined markets are underpinning prices. Limited sulphur availability in the Middle East continues to constrain parts of the supply chain.
The move above $14,000/t highlights just how tight the copper market has become. Low inventories outside the US and ongoing disruptions across key producing regions leave prices increasingly sensitive to any incremental demand growth.
While metals markets have been relatively resilient following the escalation of Middle East tensions earlier this year, higher energy prices and broader macro uncertainty continue to weigh on manufacturing activity and global growth expectations. At the same time, supply-side risks linked to the conflict are supporting several industrial metals.
Copper has become more closely linked to broader macro sentiment. Recent strength in US equities and renewed optimism around technology demand have supported momentum, even amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty. The reopening of the COMEX-LME arbitrage has encouraged additional metal flows into the US, further tightening availability in other regions.
That said, current price levels appear to be driven more by supply concerns than underlying consumption. Elevated oil prices and tight financial conditions are likely to continue weighing on demand, leaving copper vulnerable to a pullback should supply disruptions ease or arbitrage-driven flows normalise. Market focus will likely remain on inventory trends, Chinese demand signals, and the extent to which geopolitical disruptions continue to constrain refined metal supply.
Positioning has also become more supportive. The latest COTR report shows speculative net long positions in copper rose for a second consecutive week, increasing by 611 lots to 60,576 lots in the week ending 8 May, the highest level since December 2025. Net long positions also increased in zinc, while aluminium saw a modest further reduction in speculative length.
In other industrial metals, aluminium surged to the highest level since March 2022 after a jump in requests to withdraw aluminium from LME warehouses. Orders jumped by 27,750 tonnes to 47,025 tonnes, the biggest increase since March.
In precious metals, India, the world’s second-largest gold consumer, has more than doubled import tariffs on gold and silver. This is part of efforts to support the rupee and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves as the Iran conflict drags on. The government raised the tariff on gold and silver imports from 6% to 15%.
The move follows recent appeals from Prime Minister Narendra Modi urging consumers to curb gold purchases, overseas travel and fuel consumption. India meets most of its gold demand through imports, with gold and silver accounting for nearly 11% of total imports. The tariff hike is likely to be a near-term headwind for physical gold demand in India, potentially tempering local buying and weighing on import flows.