Key Highlights
- Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) recorded 7,228,883 shares in trading volume, while its share price increased $0.599 or 5.328% to $11.860.
- Origin reported FY26 statutory profit of $1.57 billion, while Underlying Profit declined to $1.16 billion as Integrated Gas Earnings moderated.
- Adjusted free Cash Flow climbed to $2.07 billion, helping reduce adjusted net Debt relative to EBITDA to 1.6 times.
- Energy Markets underlying EBITDA increased to $1.70 billion, supported by stronger electricity and Natural Gas performance and continued customer growth.
- Origin’s FY27 Energy Markets EBITDA guidance is $1.55 billion to $1.85 billion, with lower wholesale electricity prices expected to be partly balanced by increasing battery contributions.
- Origin also continues to expand its exposure to Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies as its technology and energy transition investments develop.
Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) has attracted heightened investor activity following its FY26 results, with 7,228,883 shares changing hands as the stock advanced 5.328% to $11.860. The latest Trading session comes as investors assess a mixed earnings performance, stronger cash generation and the company’s outlook for Energy Markets and its growing energy technology investments.
Origin has a current bid/offer range of $11.800 to $11.880, while its Market Capitalisation stands at approximately $19.39 billion. The increase in trading Volume coincides with stronger Energy Markets earnings, improved free cash flow and continued Investment in batteries, customer services and technology.
FY26 Earnings Mix Shifts as Gas Returns Moderate
Origin reported $1.57 billion in statutory profit for FY26, up from $1.48 billion in the previous year. However, underlying profit moved lower, falling from $1.49 billion to $1.16 billion.
The decline in underlying earnings was primarily linked to weaker commodity-related returns from Integrated Gas and increased Depreciation and amortisation. Underlying EBITDA decreased to $3.22 billion, compared with $3.41 billion a year earlier.
Integrated Gas accounted for much of the reduction, with EBITDA declining to $1.62 billion from $2.20 billion. Lower realised oil prices and reduced LNG trading gains contributed to the weaker result.
Australia Pacific LNG produced 668 petajoules on a 100% basis, while its average realised LNG price decreased to A$13.64 per gigajoule. Origin received $911 million in fully franked dividends from Australia Pacific LNG, compared with $797 million in FY25.
The contrasting earnings trends provide important context for the increased market activity surrounding ORG following the results.
Energy Markets Strength Provides Support for ORG
Energy Markets delivered stronger results during FY26, with underlying EBITDA rising to $1.70 billion, compared with $1.40 billion in the prior year.
Electricity Gross Profit increased to $1.61 billion, while natural gas gross profit reached $612 million. Origin also added 243,000 customer accounts, taking its total customer base to approximately 4.94 million accounts.
Customer churn stood at 15.0%, below the reported market average of 21.7%. Cost to serve also improved, falling to $642 million from $698 million.
Battery infrastructure is becoming an increasingly important part of the Energy Markets portfolio. As of August, approximately 1.3 gigawatts of large-scale battery capacity, equivalent to 4.1 gigawatt-hours, was operational within a broader 1.8-gigawatt development program.
The stronger Energy Markets performance provides an important counterbalance to lower Integrated Gas earnings and has become a key element of Origin’s evolving earnings profile.
Octopus and Kraken Growth Adds to Investor Interest
Origin’s investments in Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies continued to progress during FY26. The company’s share of their underlying EBITDA improved to a loss of $8 million, compared with a loss of $88 million previously, supported by better UK retail performance.
Octopus Energy expanded its customer base by 2.2 million to 19 million accounts. Kraken Technologies also recorded substantial growth, with contracted customer accounts increasing 28% to 95 million.
Kraken generated 19% Revenue growth, while Origin reported subscription gross profit margins above 70%.
In July 2026, Kraken completed a US$1 billion standalone Equity raise. Origin invested $210 million as part of the transaction and retained a 22.7% economic interest across Octopus Energy and Kraken.
The continued expansion of these businesses adds another growth component to Origin’s investment portfolio and remains an important consideration for investors assessing the company’s longer-term earnings mix.
Improved Cash Flow Strengthens Capital Position
Origin generated a substantial improvement in adjusted free cash flow during FY26, with the figure increasing by $867 million to $2.07 billion.
The stronger cash generation was supported by Energy Markets and Australia Pacific LNG, together with lower tax payments. At year-end, adjusted net debt relative to adjusted underlying EBITDA stood at 1.6 times, indicating an improved balance-sheet position.
The stronger financial position provides Origin with capacity to continue investing in capital projects while maintaining its Shareholder distribution framework.
Origin’s Board declared a fully franked final dividend of 30 cents per share, bringing total FY26 dividends to 60 cents per share.
The combination of stronger cash flow and shareholder distributions adds another dimension to the market response following the company’s results.
FY27 Forecast Keeps Energy Markets in Focus
Origin expects FY27 Energy Markets EBITDA to fall between $1.55 billion and $1.85 billion.
Lower wholesale electricity prices are expected to place pressure on earnings, although the company anticipates that this impact will be partly offset by increasing contributions from its growing battery portfolio.
Australia Pacific LNG production is forecast at 625 to 670 petajoules, reflecting the effects of natural field decline. Total APLNG capital and operating expenditure is expected to range between $3.0 billion and $3.3 billion, including increased drilling activity.
Origin also expects Octopus Energy to continue expanding profitably, while Kraken Technologies is forecast to deliver more than 20% revenue growth in FY27.
The outlook leaves investors focused on the balance between wholesale market conditions, battery expansion, LNG production and the continued scaling of Origin’s technology investments.
Conclusion
Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) has seen a notable increase in trading activity following its FY26 results, with 7,228,883 shares traded and the stock rising 5.328% to $11.860.
The market response comes as Origin reports a mixed earnings picture, with statutory profit increasing to $1.57 billion, while underlying profit declined to $1.16 billion as Integrated Gas earnings moderated. Stronger Energy Markets performance, improved free cash flow of $2.07 billion and continued growth across Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies provide important offsets.
For FY27, Energy Markets EBITDA guidance of $1.55 billion to $1.85 billion places greater emphasis on battery growth as lower wholesale electricity prices weigh on earnings. With ORG also maintaining investment across energy storage, LNG and technology, the combination of earnings transition and increased market activity could keep the stock firmly in focus.