- The Japanese Yen attracts fresh buying as trade jitters boost safe-haven demand.
- Hopes for a US-Japan trade deal and BoJ rate hike bets further underpin the JPY.
- Dovish Fed expectations continue to undermine the USD and the USD/JPY pair.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) sticks to its positive bias against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) and drags the USD/JPY pair back closer to the mid-142.00s during the Asian session on Wednesday. The uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and their impact on global economic growth continue to drive flows towards traditional safe-haven assets, including the JPY. Adding to this hopes that Japan might strike a trade deal with the US and data showing that Japan’s core machinery orders rebounded sharply in February turn out to be other factors underpinning the JPY.
Meanwhile, investors have been pricing in the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates in 2025 amid signs of broadening inflation in Japan. This marks a big divergence in comparison to bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve(Fed), which keeps the US Dollar (USD) depressed near a multi-year low and further benefits the lower-yielding JPY. Traders now look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for a fresh impetus.
Japanese Yen intraday buying remains unabated as US tariff jitters continue to boost safe-haven demand
- US President Donald Trump’s rapidly shifting stance on trade tariffs continues to fuel uncertainty and support traditional safe-haven assets, including the Japanese Yen. Over the weekend, the Trump administration granted exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers, and other electronics imported largely from China.
- Adding to this, Trump suggested on Monday that he was looking into possible exemptions for the auto industry from the 25% tariffs already in place. Trump, however, promised more tariffs on other key sectors like semiconductors as soon as next week and threatened that he would impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals in the near future.
- Data released this Wednesday showed that Japan’s Core Machinery Orders rose more than expected, by 4.3% in February, marking the highest level in a year and a strong recovery from January’s 3.5% decline. Additional details of the report revealed that manufacturing Orders rose 3%, while non-manufacturing orders jumped 11.4%.
- This points to improving business sentiment, which should support capital investment and boost employment. Adding to this higher wages may fuel demand-driven inflation. This keeps the door open for another Bank of Japan interest rate hike during the first half of 2025 and turns out to be another factor lending support to the JPY.
- Investors remain optimistic about a positive outcome from US-Japan trade talks. In fact, Trump said last week that tough but fair parameters are being set for a negotiation. Adding to this, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Japan may be a priority in tariff negotiations, fueling hopes for a possible US-Japan trade deal.
- Meanwhile, the recent unusual sell-off in the US Treasuries suggests that investors are losing faith in the US economy, which continues to dent the appeal for the US Dollar. Moreover, traders have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting rates in June and reduce its policy rate by 100 basis points this year.
- Hence, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later this Wednesday will be scrutinized closely for cues about the future rate-cut path and determining the near-term USD trajectory. In the meantime, the US Retail Sales should allow traders to grab short-term opportunities around the USD/JPY pair later during the North American session.
USD/JPY approaches multi-month low near 142.00; seems vulnerable to extends its depreciating move
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair’s inability to attract any meaningful buyers suggests that a multi-month-old downtrend is still far from being over. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory, which further suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside. In the meantime, any further decline is likely to find some support near the 142.25-142.20 region, or the weekly trough, ahead of the 142.00 mark, or the multi-month low touched last Friday. A convincing break below the latter will reaffirm the negative bias and pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move for the currency pair.
On the flip side, attempted recovery back above the 143.00 mark might now confront stiff resistance near the overnight swing high, around the 143.60 region. Any further move up could be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 144.00 round figure. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/JPY pair to the 144.45-144.50 horizontal barrier en route to the 145.00 psychological mark. The momentum could extend further towards the 145.50 zone and the 146.00 round figure.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.