Explore in-depth USD/JPY trade setups and expert forecasts here.
AUD/USD: Private Sector Credit and RBA Policy Outlook
On Friday, February 28, Aussie private sector credit data influenced the AUD/USD pair and RBA rate cut bets. Private sector credit rose 6.5% year-on-year in January, mirroring December’s increase.
Steady demand for private sector credit could signal resilient household spending, fueling inflationary pressures. A higher inflation outlook may lower the odds of a second H1 2025 RBA rate cut. A less dovish RBA rate path could drive the AUD/USD pair toward the February 21 high of $0.64081.
For a comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights, visit our detailed reports here.
Australian Dollar Daily Chart
In the US session, hotter-than-expected inflation could impact Fed rate cut bets and the US-Aussie interest rate differential. A widening rate differential, favoring the US dollar, may drag the AUD/USD pair toward $0.60 on fading Fed rate cut expectations.
Conversely, softer inflation and weaker personal spending and income readings could boost expectations of multiple 2025 Fed rate cuts. A more dovish Fed policy outlook could narrow the rate differential in favor of the Aussie dollar, supporting an AUD/USD move toward $0.64.
Traders should also monitor US-China trade tensions. Rising tensions between the US and China, in particular, may weigh on Aussie exports and the Aussie dollar, given Australia has a trade-to-GDP ratio of over 50%.