Explore expert USD/JPY forecasts and setups in our latest analysis.
AUD/USD Forecast: Trade Headwinds and Central Bank Signals
For the AUD/USD pair, trade developments will influence Aussie dollar demand on April 25. Given Australia has a trade-to-GDP ratio above 50% and China accounts for one-third of Aussie exports, easing trade tensions is crucial for the Australian economy. The AUD/USD pair rallied 0.78% on April 24 amid reports of the US and China resuming trade negotiations.
However, China has dismissed a meeting with the US on trade, refueling market uncertainty. CN Wire reported:
“China’s foreign ministry: China and US have not held consultations and negotiations on tariffs. China commerce ministry: If US really wants to resolve the issue, it should lift all unilateral tariff measures against China.”
A lack of progress could heighten expectations for a May RBA rate cut, although a weaker US dollar, driven by trade uncertainty, may help ease downside pressure on AUD/USD. A more dovish RBA path paired with escalating US-China trade tensions could drag the pair toward support at $0.63623 while easing trade risks or a hawkish RBA tone could fuel a rally toward $0.64500.
For a comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights, see our top trading signals for AUD/USD amid tariff tensions here.
Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: Consumer Sentiment in Focus
In the US session, softer consumer sentiment but higher inflation expectations could temper Fed rate cut bets. A more hawkish Fed stance would widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential, sending AUD/USD toward the $0.63623 support level.
Conversely, a lower inflation expectations print could boost bets on a Fed rate cut, potentially driving AUD/USD toward $0.64500.