USD/JPY: Key Scenarios to Watch
- Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: An escalation in trade tensions, hawkish BoJ signals, weaker US data, or dovish Fed commentary could drag USD/JPY toward 142.367.
- Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Easing trade tensions, dovish BoJ cues, upbeat US data, or hawkish Fed rhetoric may lift the pair toward 145.
See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.
AUD/USD in Focus: Housing Sector Data
Meanwhile, Aussie housing data on June 6 may influence AUD/USD trends. According to preliminary data, housing approvals jumped 3.1% month-on-month in April after falling 1.9% in March. Meanwhile, building permits slid 5.7% following a 7.1% slump in March.
A rebound in house approvals could support a rebound in building permits and rising demand for new builds. However, building permit trends remain crucial as not all approved developments proceed to construction.
Increased housing supply could dampen housing services inflation, supporting a more dovish RBA rate path and dragging AUD/USD toward $0.6450. Conversely, weakening supply may drive rents higher, potentially fueling inflation. In this scenario, the RBA could take a less dovish rate path, driving AUD/USD toward $0.6550.
Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP, remarked on recent house price trends that reflect supply-demand dynamics, stating:
“Data for May shows Australian home prices up another 0.5%mom with all cities up as rate cuts & the anticipation of more to come boost demand along with the ongoing shortage of housing. Poor affordability will likely constrain gains but expect further modest gains this yr.”
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
- Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: Weak housing sector data or dovish RBA rhetoric may drag AUD/USD below $0.6450 toward the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
- Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: Strong housing demand or hawkish RBA cues could send the pair toward $0.6550.
Click here for a more comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights.
Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: US Jobs Report and the Fed in Focus
Later today, US labor market data will drive US-Aussie interest rate differentials and AUD/USD. A stronger-than-expected US Jobs Report would temper Fed rate cut bets and widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential in favor of the US dollar. A widening rate differential may push AUD/USD below $0.6450 toward the 200-day and 50-day EMAs.
Conversely, weaker data may narrow the rate differential and drive AUD/USD above $0.6550 toward $0.66.
Beyond the economic data, Fed commentary and trade headlines will continue to fuel AUD/USD volatility.