See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.
AUD/USD in Focus: Flash PMIs Signal Economic Momentum Loss
Meanwhile, flash private sector PMI numbers from Australia put the AUD/USD pair in focus early in the June 23 session. The S&P Global Services PMI rose from 50.6 in May to 51 in June, while the Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.3 in June (May: 51).
According to the Flash PMI survey,
- Job creation was broad-based as manufacturers and service providers increased headcounts.
- New orders rose as domestic demand countered a drop in new export orders.
- Input and output price inflation softened, with the rate of input cost inflation dropping to a seven–month low.
June’s flash data revealed falling prices, aligning with inflation data and supporting market bets on more RBA rate cuts. However, upbeat labor market trends and demand sent the AUD/USD pair up from $0.64386 to $0.64432.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
- Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Iran escalates the Middle East conflict or dovish RBA signals may drag AUD/USD toward 50-day and 200-day EMAs.
- Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Easing geopolitical risks or hawkish RBA cues could send AUD/USD toward the June 16 high of $0.65517.
Click here for a more comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights.
Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: US Private Sector PMIs and Rate Differentials
Later today, the US private sector PMI data will influence US-Aussie interest rate differentials and AUD/USD outlook.
A sharp deterioration in US services sector activity and softer prices may raise bets on a Q3 Fed rate cut, narrowing the rate differential favoring the Aussie dollar. A narrower rate differential may drive AUD/USD toward $0.65 and the June 16 high of $0.65517.
Conversely, a higher Services PMI reading with an uptrend in prices may reduce Q3 2025 Fed rate cut expectations. A less dovish Fed rate path could widen the rate differential, bringing sub-$0.64 levels into play.