- EUR/USD bounces back as Eurozone’s flash PMI for August beats estimates.
- The German PMI suggested that activity contracted at a faster pace in August.
- The US Dollar remains in a bearish trajectory with Fed Powell’s speech in focus.
EUR/USD rebounds after a slight drop to near 1.1130 in Thursday’s European session as the flash Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI for August unexpectedly rose to 51.2, beating economists’ expectations.
The report showed that the strong expansion came from robust growth in the service sector’s activity. The Service PMI expanded strongly to 53.3 from the estimates and the prior release of 51.9. On the contrary, the Manufacturing PMI declined further to 45.6, lower than the 45.8 expected.
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The boost largely comes from a surge in services activity in France, with the Business Activity Index jumping by almost five points, likely linked to the buzz surrounding the Olympic Games in Paris. It’s doubtful this momentum will carry over into the coming months, however. Meanwhile, the overall pace of growth in the services sector has slowed down in Germany, and the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector remains in rapid decline.”
The slowdown in the German economy signaled by the PMI data is unlikely to weigh on market speculation about the European Central Bank (ECB) interest-rate outlook. Markets broadly expect the ECB is expected to cut its key borrowing rates one more time in the last quarter of this year, given that price pressures are anticipated to return to the bank’s target of 2% next year.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD remains broadly firm amid fragile US Dollar
- EUR/USD trades almost flat as the US Dollar (USD) remains close to a fresh 2024 low. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to 101.00. The outlook of the US Dollar remains bearish as the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears to be on track to cut interest rates in September.
- This would be the first dovish interest rate decision by the Fed in more than four years. The US central bank has maintained a restrictive monetary policy stance since March 2022 to bring down inflation.
- Market speculation for Fed interest rate cuts has strengthened as the “vast majority” of Fed officials see policy-easing in September as appropriate, given that inflationary pressures continue to ease further, according to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of July 30-31 policy meeting. The FOMC minutes also showed that some policymakers were ready to reduce interest rates already back in July.
- For more cues on the interest rate path, investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium, which will begin at 14:00 GMT. Investors will pay attention to clues about the size of interest rate cuts in September and by how much the Fed could reduce them this year.
- In Thursday’s session, investors will keenly focus on the US flash S&P Global PMI data for August, which will be published at 13:45 GMT. The preliminary PMI report is expected to show that the Composite PMI fell to 53.5 from 54.3 in July.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD posts fresh year-to-date high at 1.1175
EUR/USD trades inside Wednesday’s trading range, with investors focusing on the Fed Powell’s speech at the JH Symposium on Friday. The major currency pair is expected to continue its four-day winning streak as its outlook has strengthened, given that it is trading close to a year-to-date high near 1.1175.
Earlier, the shared currency pair strengthened after a breakout of a channel formation on a daily time frame. All short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher, suggesting a strong uptrend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting a strong upside momentum. Still, chances of a corrective pullback increase as the momentum indicator is in overbought territory.
After a decisive break above the December 28, 2023, high at 1.1140, Euro bulls aim to recapture round-level resistance of 1.1200. On the downside, the round-level figure of 1.1100 will act as a major support zone.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.