Winning the £1m premium bond jackpot is more unlikely than being struck by lightning multiple times
The dream of winning a life-changing sum from premium bonds is fading again as new data reveals just how slim the chances of a big win have become.
According to the latest figures, the odds of winning the £1m jackpot from premium bonds now stand at a staggering one in 22 million for every £1 unit of bonds held in a single month.
To put that into perspective, it’s more unlikely than being struck by lightning multiple times in your lifetime.
Even mid-tier prizes, once within reach for some savers, are now becoming increasingly elusive.
The chances of winning at least £50,000 in any given month have dropped to one in 22 million, while the odds of winning £10,000 are now one in nearly four million.
The odds of winning any prize at all, even the smallest amount of £25, are one in 880 in a given month – if investors put in the minimum amount they are allowed of £25 – according to figures put together by Moneyfacts for The i Paper.
Meanwhile, the majority of participants are likely to walk away empty-handed, as evidenced by the 130 billion entries that won nothing in the most recent month, according to the data.
What are premium bonds?
Premium bonds are a unique savings product issued by National Savings & Investments (NS&I), backed by the UK Government. Instead of earning interest, your savings are entered into a monthly prize draw, with your return based on luck.
How they work:
- You purchase bonds in units of £1, with a minimum investment of £25.
- Every £1 bond has an equal chance of winning in the monthly draw.
- Each month, a range of tax-free cash prizes are awarded, from £25 to £1m.
- The more bonds you hold, the better your chances, but there’s no guarantee of winning anything.
- You can hold up to £50,000 in premium bonds.
Big prizes, tiny chances
The number of high-tier winners remains exceptionally low. Just two people win the £1m jackpot each month, and only 78 people walk away with £100,000.
Meanwhile, more than 5.8 million smaller prizes ranging from £25 to £100 are awarded, but these often fail to keep up with inflation for most savers.
Here’s how the odds stack up:
Why have the chances of winning diminished?
Until recently, the odds of winning a premium bond price were increasing, but they have decreased since last year.
The main reason for the declining odds is that the total amount invested in premium bonds has increased significantly, while the prize fund hasn’t kept pace with this growth.
In recent years, especially during uncertain economic times such as the Covid pandemic or when interest rates were low, millions of new savers have turned to premium bonds as a ‘safe’ place to park their money. The total amount invested in premium bonds has now surpassed £120bn.
Since every £1 bond has the same chance of winning, more bonds in circulation means more competition and lower chances of winning.
NS&I sets aside a monthly prize fund based on an interest rate – currently 3.8 per cent as of April 2025, down from 4 per cent in January 2025.
While the prize rate has risen slightly recently, the prize fund is divided among an increasing number of bondholders. As more people play but the prize pool remains relatively unchanged, the odds of winning for each £1 bond become slimmer.
To balance the distribution of prizes, NS&I has opted to award fewer large payouts and more smaller £25 wins. This may increase the likelihood of winning something but makes it significantly harder to win life-changing amounts.
Rachel Springall, a finance expert at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, said: “It’s disappointing that the chances of winning have decreased over time, but premium bonds will remain a popular choice for many savers.”
Better than before
Although the odds of winning have worsened since last year when they were 1 in 21,000, they are still better than they were in previous years.
For instance, back in 2020, the odds of winning any money at all in each monthly draw were one in 34,500 per £1 bond, and in 2017, the odds were one in 30,000.
Back in April 2009, the odds were a whopping 1 in 36,000.
So while the chances of winning today are worse than they were in late 2023 and early 2024, they remain significantly better than they were just a few years ago.
The allure of premium bonds
Despite the dismal odds, premium bonds continue to be a popular savings option in the UK.
Many savers enjoy them as a “fun” and secure alternative to traditional savings accounts.
With a Government-backed guarantee and tax-free winnings, they remain an attractive option for those looking for low-risk ways to save.
Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “The chances of winning big on premium bonds may be getting smaller, but this is not enough to deter people.
“The prospect of winning the £1m prize, however slim, will continue to be a temptation for many.”
Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst at Interactive Investor, pointed out that while the odds of winning premium bonds prizes have fluctuated over time, they tend to align with broader economic priorities.
While some periods have seen more favourable odds to encourage saving, the general trend has been a steady decline in the chances of a major win.
He said: “Premium bonds are ultimately about luck, not strategy. While they may appeal to those seeking the thrill of a life-changing prize, savers would be wise to explore more reliable savings options that offer more consistent returns.”
Ms Springall added: “It’s important to remember that while the odds have worsened, they are still better than they were in the past. So, it’s not all bad news.”
How to buy premium bonds
1. Visit the NS&I website at nsandi.com.
2. Create an account by providing your personal details, including your name, address, national insurance number, and bank account information.
3. Choose how much to invest – the minimum purchase is £25, and you can hold up to £50,000 in premium bonds.
4. Pay using a debit card or bank transfer. You can make a one-time purchase or set up regular monthly payments.
5. Wait for your bonds to enter the draw — your bonds will be eligible for the prize draw starting the following month.
You can also buy premium bonds for others. Parents or guardians can purchase them for children under 16, and you’ll manage the bonds until they turn 16.