After years of turbulence, the bond market is showing renewed signs of strength in 2025. The sharp increase in yields during the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening cycle from 2022 to 2023 had left fixed-income investors bruised. But as inflation pressures subside, interest rates peak, and central banks shift toward more accommodative stances, the bond market is staging a quiet but powerful comeback.
For investors, the big question now is: Is this rally sustainable, and how long will it last, especially with the uncertainty of the Trump regime.
What’s Driving the 2025 bond rally?
Several key factors are behind the current momentum in the bond market:
1)
Peak Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve signalled earlier this year that it had likely reached the end of its hiking cycle. With policy rates holding steady and the possibility of rate cuts ahead, investors are locking in attractive yields before they start falling.
2)
Falling Inflation: After hitting multi-decade highs in 2022, inflation has steadily declined toward the Fed’s 2 per cent target. This decline supports bond prices as the real return on fixed-income instruments becomes more attractive.
3)
Recession Risk & Safe Haven Demand: While the US economy remains resilient, signs of slowing growth has prompted a return to defensive assets like high-quality government and investment-grade corporate bonds.
What This Means for Investors Right Now
For the first time in several years, bonds are offering income and capital appreciation potential. In early 2025, US Treasury yields have stabilised around 4.25–4.75 per cent across the mid-to-long end of the curve, while high-quality corporate bonds are yielding between 5.5–6.5 per cent. This is a significant shift from the near-zero yields of the past decade.
Investors who stayed on the sidelines are now returning, attracted by the opportunity to earn strong risk-adjusted returns, especially in short and intermediate duration bonds. Additionally, the bond rally has offered a hedge against equity market volatility, reinforcing the importance of a diversified portfolio.
These factors could lead to higher long-term yields, especially if markets begin to fear a resurgence of inflation or fiscal irresponsibility. On the other hand, if Trump’s policies boost economic growth without reigniting inflation, bond yields may stabilise or even decline.
Investors should prepare for higher volatility in the second half of 2025. This means focusing on high-quality bonds, active duration management, and exposure to assets that can weather macro shocks such as floating rate instruments, shorter-term notes, and diversified mutual funds. With Trump back in office, political risk has returned as a key driver of bond market sentiment, requiring careful portfolio adjustments. For investors, the bond market is not just back, it’s once again a core pillar of a well-rounded investment strategy. But as always, staying informed and nimble will be essential as the political and economic landscape evolves.
Anna-Joy Tibby-Bell is assistant vice-president, personal financial planning at Sterling Asset Management. Sterling provides financial advice and instruments in U.S. dollars and other hard currencies to the corporate, individual and institutional investor. Visit our website at www.sterling.com.jm
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Anna-Joy Tibby-Bell.