I mean the most likely upcoming move below the rising, dashed support line based on the 2020, 2022, and 2023 lows.
Remember when silver broke below a similar line in 2012? It then quickly dropped below $20. Interestingly, that decline started from the same (nominal) price levels that we have right now.
Why would silver decline here? Most likely the rising USD Index is one major thing, but another reason is silver’s industrial usage. This is great when the world economies are growing, but not so good if they are about to decline or grow at slower pace due to trade limitations.
Did silver have multiple industrial uses at the 2008 top? Yup.
Did it slide, nonetheless? Also, true.
The main difference between both cases is that now silver is after a rally that’s not as steep, and it’s more vulnerable technically – it failed to rally above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the 2011 – 2020 decline. Technically, the rally from the 2020 low is just a correction of the 2011 – 2020 slide.
Is the silver market near its breaking point? Will the manipulated (“manipulated”?) price finally break free and soar? Is it inevitable and prices are NOW on the verge of jumping to three digits?
Perhaps.
But I’ve been reading all the above since I first got interested in this market in 2002. During this time, silver rallied, and it declined just like any other commodity. What are the reasons for silver to soar now that at the same time were not valid a year ago, five years ago, ten years ago and fifteen years ago?
If there are none as it was all up-to-date also back then, then perhaps those reasons are good reasons for silver to rally eventually (!!!), but not necessarily now or in the following months.
Yes, I do think that silver will soar in the following years (to the benefit of those with it in their retirement accounts), but I also think that it will decline in the following weeks and months.