Is it the “last hurrah” for the market in art, wine, comics, Pokémon cards, video games, old VHS tapes and other collectibles?
A rising demand for collectibles coincided with the bull market in stocks for much of the 2010s.
By 2021, the market for collectibles was red hot. A Jan. 10, 2022 Yahoo! Finance article did a review:
Collectibles Soared to New Heights in 2021
Never in the history of collectibles has there been such interest as in 2021, when record prices were paid for coins, comics, Pokémon cards, video games, NFTs and even old VHS tapes.
Our February 2022 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast took note of this intense interest in collectibles and said:
Few suspect that the unrivaled enthusiasm for rarities, many of which are not particularly rare or old, signals a last hurrah.
That prediction appears to be unfolding before our eyes. The August 2024 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast showed charts of vintage sneakers, baseball cards and classic cars and provided commentary:
In February 2022, when a pair of Nike Air Ships worn by Michael Jordan sold for $1.47 million, EWFF stated that the top was in for sneakers. The Sneaker Index is down more than 40% from its November 2021 peak. In July, the index slipped below the trendline drawn off lows in late 2022 and 2023.
Baseball cards held up a little longer, peaking in May 2022, as did the enthusiasm of collectors. As the chart of the Baseball Card Index indicates, the card market was said to be “on fire” as late as September 2022. At that time, as the Hagerty Index of Collector Cars index shows, collectible prices were still rising. Citing the index’s blast to all-time highs and the introduction of the Utopia, an 852-horsepower Italian sports car, EWFF identified the moment as the “last tribute to bull market automobile euphoria.” The index is now down more than 10% from its peak.
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