Worldwide global cocoa production fell by 14% in the 2023-24 season as output from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which produce nearly 60% of the world’s cocoa, slowed.
The lower production levels were fuelled by severe weather conditions, including heavy rainfall in September and October which helped increase the spread of brown rot fungal disease.
The sector has also been impacted by the fallout of events such as Covid, which has driven port congestion, shipping delays and rising fuel costs; as well by a lack of investment into cocoa farms despite recent increases in farm gate prices.
“Cocoa is a market where the grower produces a very high-value good but receives a very low share of the actual value chain. As a result, replanting rates of diseased trees are low and West African yields have been more subject to weather impacts,” said Tracey Allen, an agricultural commodities strategist at J.P. Morgan.
The result of this smorgasbord of events has been a sharp increase in cocoa prices.
Prices have generally stayed between $2,000 and $3,000 per metric tonne but a gradually increase was seen throughout 2023. Then, last year, a more dramatic surge happened, with cocoa prices now sitting above $10,000 (£7,731).
Cocoa supply in 2025
According to European bank ING, cocoa arrivals at ports in the Ivory Coast have seen a 14% year-on-year (YoY) increase, reaching 1.4 million tonnes (mt). However, as the season progressed, this gap narrowed. The YoY gap peaked at 34% in late November/early December.
The mid-crop (smaller of two annual cocoa harvests) in the Ivory Coast is set to start in April, with suggestions that it could fall dramatically from the historical average of 500 kilotons (kt), sitting at 300kt. The total output (main and mid-crop) in the Ivory Coast is forecast to grow by almost 11% YoY, reaching 1.85mt – but still below the 2.2mt produced in 2022-23.
Other large increases in supply are expected from Ghana and Ecuador, which are forecast to see supply grow by 13% and 12%, respectively.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) estimates that global output will grow by 8% YoY to 4.84mt.
The price for cocoa is now easing as harvests improve and demand slows. But as Mike Navarro, MD at Gnaw, told Food Manufacture, the sector remains “light years away from where the market was only 5-7 years ago”.
The impact on artisan chocolatiers
Faced with a tough market and wanting to ensure its chocolate is ethical sourced and traceable, Navarro said the Norfolk-based chocolate manufacturer made the decision to move all its cocoa sourcing to selected farms in Colombia.
While Colombia is a major cocoa producer, its output is much smaller than the likes of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Ecuador. In 2021, Colombia produced 65,174mt of cocoa with a planted area of 194,428 hectares.
As outlined by the World Resources Institute, while West Africa deforestation has been fuelled by cocoa production, this is not the case for Colombia. Instead, its deforestation challenges have been driven by things such as illegal timber and livestock.
The Government of Colombia saw cocoa as a way to help address this issue, using it as part of a concerted strategy to close pristine forests to development and restore degraded areas of land with agroforestry-based cocoa.
Colombia has since invested in thousands of hectares of agroforestry-based cocoa schemes, taking pressure off biodiverse natural forests and restoring ecological health to degraded landscapes.
“Roughly three quarters of the world’s cocoa comes from Africa, however, the trees are poorly managed and tree stocks are ageing,” Navarro added on the business’s decision to source from Colombia.
“The industry, therefore, found itself in a position of stock deficit, an attractive target for speculators to buy ‘long positions’ in the market and drive-up prices. The added burden of snowballing raw materials (+300% at its peak) will see many artisanal operators go to the wall.”
But in the “eye of the storm”, as Navarro describes it, while others reduced their cocoa content, Gnaw upped theirs from 36-40% in a move to underline its “no compromise” attitude.
Its sourcing decisions paid off for Gnaw, but it did result in some drastic re-strategising: “We’ve had to completely rethink our business from top to bottom, be that messaging, identity, depth of range, thoughtful line extensions and sustainable ‘non-negotiables.”
Cocoa alternatives
Other businesses have responded to supply chain pressures by exploring the use of alternatives like carob, grape seeds and fava beans.
However, rather than trying to substitute cocoa for something else, it is possible to employ other speciality ingredients such as yeast extracts, according to Ohly which specialises in such commodities.
The supplier says that if used with a smaller amount of cocoa in a ‘clever’ way, yeast extracts can amplify rich chocolate flavours.
Whilst yeast extracts, as with many other alternatives on the market, cannot directly replace cocoa in food recipes, they can bring roasted cocoa and dried fruit or dark chocolate notes to enhance the flavour of the cocoa, meaning that it can be used in smaller quantities.
Cocoa flavour profiles are very distinct, so when using less cocoa in recipes it is vital to bring out these rich and complex flavours as much as possible.
Yeast extract can enhance brown, roasted and bitter notes in cocoa or coffee-based applications. When heated, the sugars and amino acids in yeast react to produce rich, full-bodied, roasted flavours and deep brown colours in what is known as the Maillard reaction. Yeast extract can also help reinforce depth and flavour to balance sweetness in reduced cocoa recipes.
“Adding yeast extracts allows manufacturers to achieve multidimensional complex taste experiences that meet today’s consumer expectations,” Daria Pashkova, product and marketing manager at Ohly, explained.
“Yeast extracts can help to bring back the richness and mouthfeel that can be lost when reducing cocoa powder. This makes yeast extracts an excellent solution for businesses to reduce the cocoa content while retaining the premium taste experience.”
Surplus to return after three years
Looking ahead at the cocoa market, Gnaw’s Navarro told Food Manufacture that “after a long period of stock deficit within cocoa production, growing conditions are looking significantly improved and a small surplus is predicted this year”.
However, although the return of a surplus will ease some manufacturer’s minds, ING says global inventories will continue to be tight.
Following a 3-year deficit and supply risks lingering, the market is likely to remain volatile.
But Navarro has everything crossed for fellow premium producers: “Fingers crossed this is the year artisanal producers find their feet and the fine chocolate appreciation returns to the fore.”
For Gnaw, this year will see it continuing to innovate, with its first foray into decadent biscuits and a new strand of automation within its factory.
“[This] might sound counter-intuitive for an artisanal range, but in truth is completely the opposite as it reinforces our quality standards, fine-tunes efficiencies and supports an industrious workforce who have worked tirelessly in recent times to turn around the fortunes of this incredible business.
“Having historically hidden our story under a bushel, we’re finally getting to grips with telling our unique underdog tale,” Navarro concluded.