- EUR/USD steadies below 1.1200 with investors focusing on the inflation data from both the Eurozone and the US.
- The ECB is expected to deliver two more interest rate cuts by year-end.
- Fed’s Mary Daly vows for a 25-basis-points interest-rate reduction in September.
EUR/USD trades in a tight range below the immediate resistance of 1.1200 in Tuesday’s European session. The major currency pair consolidates as investors look for fresh cues about how much the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates this year.
Market participants currently see an ECB September interest rate cut as certain. The central bank is also expected to cut its key borrowing rates again somewhere during the last quarter of this year. This growing speculation of two additional interest rate cuts responds to easing price pressures in the Eurozone and the uncertainty over its economic outlook.
For the latest update on the current status of Eurozone inflation, investors await the flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for August, which will be published on Friday. On year, the headline and core HICP – which excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – are estimated to have slowed to 2.2% and 2.8%, respectively. The scenario of soft inflationary pressures could weigh on the Euro as it would strengthen market speculation for further rate cuts. On the contrary, surprisingly hot inflation figures would weaken them, providing support to the Euro.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD trades sideways while US Dollar struggles for firm footing
- EUR/USD consolidates slightly below 1.1200 as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain ground after posting a fresh year-to-date low. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, hovers below 101.00. The Greenback is expected to remain sideways as investors focus on the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for July, which will be published on Friday.
- The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure could provide cues about the likely pace at which the central bank will cut interest rates in September. The annual core PCE is estimated to have accelerated to 2.7% from the prior release of 2.6%, with monthly figures seen growing steadily by 0.2%.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data shows that the probability of a 50-basis points (bps) interest rate reduction in September is 28.5%, while the rest points to a 25-bps rate cut, indicating that the Fed return to policy-normalization is certain.
- Meanwhile, most Fed officials also see rate cuts in September as appropriate, given that the central bank is now more worried about emerging risks to the job market. San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said that “the time is upon us” to cut interest rates, in an interview with Bloomberg on Monday. When asked about the likely size of interest rate cuts, Daily said that she expects a 25-bps interest rate reduction is most likely, however, she left doors open for a 50-bps rate cut if the labor market deteriorates.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD hovers below 1.1200
EUR/USD turns sideways after posting a fresh swing high at 1.1200. The major currency pair strengthened after a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern on the weekly time frame. The upward-sloping 10-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0940 supports more upside ahead.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting a strong upside momentum. Still, it has reached overbought levels at around 70.00, increasing the chances of a corrective pullback. On the upside, the July 2023 high at 1.1275 will be the next stop for the Euro bulls.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.