Investors eye Nvidia, bond yields, and the next commodity supercycle: What to watch this week

Investors step into the week after a Friday in the red, spurred by a stable of geopolitical uncertainties post Trump-Xi summit, rising bond yields, and sticky inflation.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed Friday down 1.2% to gain just 0.1% on the week, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) finished Friday down 1.5% for a loss of roughly 0.1% over the five-day stretch. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) closed Friday in the red by 1.1% to end the week down 0.2%.

On Friday, investors kept the 10-year yield (^TNX) firmly in focus as it zoomed past 4.5%. Expect the market to resume refreshing the page on Monday.

Things to circle on the calendar

After several weeks of chock-full economic and earnings calendars, investors will get a bit of a breather stepping into this five-day stretch.

Nvidia (NVDA) quarterly results on Wednesday will dominate the week. The company just this past week surpassed the $5.7 trillion mark, reaffirming the semiconductor giant’s place as the largest company in the world. Coming off CEO Jensen Huang’s trip to China alongside President Trump, any commentary about dealmaking on that front will be in focus.

Elsewhere on the earnings calendar, we’re watching results from big box retailers Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, alongside budget airline Ryanair on Monday and major government contractor Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) on Friday.

The University of Michigan’s readings on market sentiment and inflation expectations come out on Friday, headlining the economic calendar. Investors will also get data on the services economy from the New York Fed and Kansas City Fed on Monday and Friday, respectively.

Nvidia reports results while surfing a big wave

By far the standout event of the week will be Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday. The company’s earnings have consistently been a bellwether for not only the semiconductor industry but the AI and Big Tech trade more broadly.

But even as Nvidia crossed the $5.7 trillion mark this week, UBS analyst Tim Arcuri noted that investors have been somewhat wary through recent months, setting expectations likely only to be satisfied by an absolutely stellar report.

“While investor interest here is always obviously high, we sense a marked apathy on this stock even among most big long-onlies – so the set-up for a good set of numbers and potentially positive news on capital return is a good one,” Arcuri wrote.

Investors will also be paying close attention to any commentary from Huang on what agreements — if any — he was able to make in China. Shares notched a new all-time high on Thursday after Reuters reported that the list of Chinese companies approved by the US government to buy Nvidia’s H200 chips includes heavyweights Alibaba (BABA), Tencent (0700.HK), ByteDance, and JD.com (JD).

Finally, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya noted that investors will be watching for any commentary around Nvidia’s competitors in the chip design space, whether from established firms such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO), or from newcomers such as Cerebrus (CBRS), which went public on Thursday.

Analysts are looking for adjusted earnings of $1.78 per share, and revenue of $79.2 billion, according to estimates compiled by Capital IQ.

The ‘K-shaped economy’ continues

We’ve been talking about the K-shaped economy for a while now, but that dynamic just won’t go away. The latest place it’s showing up: transportation costs, both at the pump and in travel spending.

Lower-income households tend to be more exposed to energy price hikes, because spending on electricity, gasoline, and other energy-driven necessities takes up more of those households’ income, according to Bank of America economists Liz Krisberg and David Tinsley.

Consequently, low-income households have seen the lowest increase in nominal gas spending because they have cut down their consumption by the largest margin. On the other side, high-income households have seen the largest jump in spending because they have done the least to reduce their consumption.

And as the war in Iran has sent gasoline and jet fuel prices surging, the “K-shaped economy” is showing up in Americans’ travel spending, per BofA.

While the war in Iran has only pushed about 10% of Americans to outright cancel a trip, higher-income Americans are spending more on travel at a faster rate than middle- and lower-income Americans, the economists said.

And while most Americans aren’t canceling trips due to the war-driven price increases, many are looking to take fewer trips or cut back on items like accommodations — even as overall spending continues to largely hold up.

The next commodities supercycle?

The market might just be at the start of the next commodity supercycle, according to energy strategist Jeff Currie of Carlyle Group.

In a thread posted to X Friday morning, Currie laid out a multi-pronged argument for why the market is right at the beginning of the next years-long rally cycle for commodities that he called “the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.”

First, he said the AI trade faces major physical bottlenecks in energy, metals, and compute capacity, even as the “Magnificent Seven” companies are expected to spend more than $700 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 alone.

The Iran conflict has triggered the largest energy supply shock in history as the oil market has lost more than 13.7 million barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs. Traders argue that even after the war resolves, the playing field for the Persian Gulf — one of the most important supply markets in the world for everything from energy and metals to fertilizers — has changed.

“The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade,” Currie wrote.

The market is also swinging toward de-globalization, Currie argues, moving the market from a “HAGO” model focused on “hard assets, global operations” to “HALO,” which Currie redefines as “hard assets, local operations,” from its typical meaning of “heavy assets, low obsolescence.”

“This is the Revenge of the Old Economy in real time,” Currie wrote. “Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.”

Economic and earnings calendar

Monday

Economic data: New York Fed services business activity, May (-14.0 previously); NAHB housing market index, May (34 expected, 34 previously)

Earnings calendar: Baidu (BIDU), Trip.com Group (TCOM), Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY)

Tuesday

Economic data: ADP weekly employment change, week ended May 2 (33,000 previously); Pending homes sales, month-on-month, April (+1.6% expected, +1.5% previously)

Earnings calendar: The Home Depot (HD), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), CAVA Group (CAVA)

Wednesday

Economic data: MBA mortgage applications, week ended May 15 (+1.7% previously); FOMC meeting minutes (meeting ended Apr. 29)

Earnings calendar: Nvidia (NVDA), Analog Devices (ADI), The TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Intuit (INTU), Target Corporation (TGT), Williams-Sonoma (WSM)

Thursday

Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ended May 16 (211,000 previously); Continuing claims, week ended May 9 (1.782 million previously); Philadelphia Fed business outlook, May (12.0 expected, 26.7 previously); Housing starts, month-on-month, April (-4.5% expected, +10.8% previously); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May preliminary reading (54.5 previously); S&P Global US services PMI, May preliminary reading (51.0 previously); S&P Global US composite PMI, May preliminary reading (51.7 previously); Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, May (10 previously)

Earnings calendar: Walmart (WMT), Deere & Company (DE), NetEase (NTES), Ross Stores (ROST), Workday (WDAY), Zoom Communications (ZM), Ralph Lauren (RL), Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK), BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ)

Friday

Economic data: U. Mich sentiment, May final reading (48.2 previously), U. Mich current conditions, May final reading (47.8 previously); U. Mich expectations, May final reading (48.5 previously); U. Mich 1-year inflation, May final reading (4.5% previously); U. Mich 5-10 year inflation, May final reading (3.4% previously); Kansas City Fed services activity, May (3 previously)

Earnings calendar: Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)

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