June 23, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies
STORY LINK Pound Rate Today: GBP Mixed vs EUR, USD amid PMI Surveys and Iran Crisis
The British Pound (GBP) wavered sideways against the Euro (EUR) and US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the latest PMI results and the US strikes on Iran over the weekend infusing the pairing with uncertainty.
At the time of writing, the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) traded at 1.16951 (+0.11%) and the Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) was quoted at 1.34787 (+0.32%).
The Pound (GBP) saw an uneven performance on Monday, as markets digested fresh UK economic data and global geopolitical developments.
The latest flash PMI figures offered a glimmer of resilience, with June’s reading for the dominant services sector ticking up from 50.9 to 51.3, in line with forecasts. The slight uptick suggests the UK’s private sector is still expanding, albeit at a sluggish pace.
However, the broader tone of the report remained cautious, reflecting a tepid recovery and limited momentum across the economy. This restrained any significant upside for the Pound.
Adding to the uncertainty, GBP was also weighed down by jittery risk sentiment, as traders responded to unexpected US airstrikes on Iran over the weekend. This injected fresh volatility into global markets and put some pressure on the increasingly risk-sensitive UK currency.
The Euro (EUR) traded without clear direction on Monday, as markets absorbed the latest health check on the Eurozone economy.
June’s flash PMIs were broadly in line with expectations, offering little in the way of surprise. The composite index pointed to a flatlining economy, but there was a modest bright spot: the services sector managed to claw its way out of contraction, providing some reassurance to EUR investors.
In the broader market context, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East prompted a tilt toward safe-haven assets – a dynamic that lent some support to the safer Euro, particularly against the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound.
However, any gains were held in check by the Euro’s inverse trading relationship with the US Dollar (USD), which strengthened on the back of global uncertainty. As the ‘Greenback’ climbed, the single currency’s upside was effectively capped.
Tuesday’s session opens with fresh insight into the health of the German economy, as the latest Ifo business climate index comes into focus. Analysts anticipate a modest improvement, potentially marking a one-year high – a sign that confidence in Europe’s economic engine may be slowly returning. This could support the Euro.
Later in the day, the spotlight turns to central bank commentary, with a series of speeches scheduled from both European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) officials. Key names on the docket include ECB President Christine Lagarde and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey.
For the Pound, hawkish signals from BoE policymakers – particularly any pushback on the idea of an August interest rate cut – could give Sterling a lift. Conversely, if ECB officials strike a more dovish tone, the Euro may struggle to hold its ground.
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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts