MARKET MOVEMENTS:
–Brent crude oil is up 5.6% at $95.49 a barrel.
–European benchmark gas is up 3.4% to 40.10 euros a megawatt-hour.
–Copper futures fall 0.6% to $13,269.50 a metric ton.
–Gold futures are down 1.2% to $4,820.60 a troy ounce.
TOP STORY:
Oil Shows the Invisible Hand of the Market at Work
Even after today’s rise in oil prices, benchmark Brent crude futures are more than 15% below their March peak.
That’s not just because President Trump seems eager to wrap up the war. Higher prices for crude also appear to be hitting demand.
Surges in commodity prices tend eventually to unwind when they encourage new supplies to come forward-or deter consumption. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz propelled crude markets higher, the second dynamic is kicking in.
OTHER STORIES:
Big Oil Plows Billions Into Far-Flung Drilling Sites to Escape Iran Turmoil
Exxon Mobil, Chevron and other energy companies are speeding up their searches for new oil-and-gas prospects-far away from the perils of the war in the Middle East.
Exxon recently outlined a potential plan to pump up to $24 billion into Nigeria’s deep-water oil fields, while Chevron expanded its footprint in Venezuela. BP bought stakes in oil blocks off the coast of Namibia, and TotalEnergies signed an exploration deal with Turkey. Major oil companies could together create $120 billion in value from their exploration ventures in coming years, the energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie estimated Thursday.
MARKET TALKS:
Oil Markets on Edge as Traders Await Breakthrough in U.S.-Iran Talks — Market Talk
1434 GMT – Oil prices slightly trim earlier gains, but uncertainty over peace talks between the U.S. and Iran is keeping markets on edge. As the end of a two-week cease-fire looms, Iran said it hasn’t yet made a decision on whether it will attend negotiations this week. “The two-week cease-fire is due to expire on Wednesday, and there’s little sign of a breakthrough so far,” Fawad Razaqzada from Forex.com says. “Still, the overall feeling is that traders are holding onto the belief that something constructive will eventually come through.” Brent crude for June delivery is up 4.6% to $94.52 a barrel, while WTI futures for May are up 5% to $88.04 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Cattle Higher Following Cattle on Feed Report — Market Talk
1025 ET – Live cattle futures are up in morning trading, coming after Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed a larger cut to on-feed inventories than expected by analysts. “USDA’s latest cattle-on-feed report confirmed the U.S. herd continues to shrink,” says Joe Davis of Futures International in a note. “Both placements and marketings posted historically low March readings.” In its monthly report published Friday, the USDA said that total inventories of cattle on feedlots totaled 11.58 million head through April 1. Live cattle futures are up 0.4%, while lean hogs are up 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
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CFTC Shows Cuts to Long Positions in Corn and Soybeans — Market Talk
1015 ET – The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report showed large cuts in corn and soybean long positions. Friday afternoon’s report showed a decrease of roughly 17,300 contracts in soybeans among fund traders, along with a cut of 14,230 contracts in corn. Fund traders are also net short in wheat contracts, according to the CFTC. Market focus remains on how spring weather plays out for farmers, but without a major catalyst the gradual reduction in long positions may continue, says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. “Unless there is a major war or weather issue, funds may continue to sell off their long position until August,” says Blohm. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
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Canadian Inflation Pass Through From Commodities Seen Modest — Market Talk
1011 ET – The pass-through of higher commodity prices into underlying inflation in Canada will likely be modest, assuming the Middle East conflict winds down soon, KPMG Canada’s Ali Jaffery says. The economist expects businesses will squeeze margins to preserve market share, and that will help temper medium-term inflation expectations to some degree, which is what the Bank of Canada will be focused on. “They will remain in a wait-and-see mode until the path of the conflict, and its initial impact on the global economy, are clear,” Jaffery says. KPMG expects the BoC to remain on hold this month, and likely for 2026. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
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Palm Oil Prices End Higher, Tracking Crude Oil Prices — Market Talk
1009 GMT – Palm oil prices ended higher, tracking gains of crude oil prices amid escalating tension in the Middle East,says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng sees support for prices at 4,450 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,580 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery closed 47 ringgit higher at 4,497 ringgit a ton.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Gain on More Supportive Weather — Market Talk
0904 ET – U.S. natural gas futures start the week higher after weekend weather forecasts added some near-term demand. Futures appear more driven by the cooler temperature outlook than the rebound in oil, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. A further increase in net short positions, according to the latest commitment of traders report, puts the market in “decided bullish territory,” the firm adds. And while the inventory surplus is likely to expand with this week’s EIA data, it “could be easily erased by a warmer-than-normal summer that appears quite possible given the volatility in the weather patterns seen in recent months.”Nymex natural gas is up 1.8% at $2.723/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
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Oil Futures Rise on Uncertainty Over U.S.-Iran Talks
0844 ET – Oil futures are higher as uncertainty about U.S.-Iran talks hangs over the market after Friday’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz proved short-lived. “The strait remains under a double blockade, uncertainty around an agreement is higher than ever, and Tuesday’s cease-fire deadline hangs over markets,” Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu says in a note. While that could push prices higher, both sides have strong incentives to end the conflict “and the current hard stance may simply be an effort to strengthen their negotiating positions,” he adds. WTI is up 5.2% at $88.22 a barrel and Brent is up 4.8% at $94.72 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
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Gold Falls as Hormuz Tensions Send Oil Higher — Market Talk
0722 GMT – Gold prices fall after news that the Strait of Hormuz was closed again sent oil and gas prices higher, reviving concerns over inflation. In early European trading, gold futures in New York are down 1.3% to $4,815.30 a troy ounce. The U.S. dollar, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rises 0.1% to 98.24. “The latest weakness has been driven by renewed dollar strength and fresh concerns about energy-led inflation,” analysts at Saxo Bank say. “Gold and silver remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East given the knock-on impact on the dollar, bond yields, and U.S. rate expectations.” Silver futures fall 2.4% to 79.90 an ounce, while platinum is down 2.3% to $2,092 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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European Gas Prices Gain Amid Conflicting Signals on Hormuz — Market Talk
0715 GMT – European natural-gas prices rise more than 4% as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. seizure of an Iranian ship dent hopes for a near-term diplomatic resolution in the Middle East. The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract is up 4.7% to $40.60 euros a megawatt hour, after tumbling on Friday on news that passage through the Strait was open. However, Iran later said it would close the Strait again and restrict shipping until the U.S. lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. “The conflicting messages from Iran are adding to confusion, keeping the market nervous,” analysts at ANZ say. Price gains, however, are limited. While Europe continues to compete with Asia for LNG cargoes to rebuild depleted gas inventories, relatively subdued demand from Asia has helped ease pressure on European supply. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Oil Gains 5% on Hormuz Tensions, U.S. Seizure of Iranian Ship
0707 GMT – Oil prices rise more than 5% as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted and after the U.S. seized an Iranian-flagged ship over the weekend, undermining confidence in diplomatic progress. In early European trading, Brent crude for June delivery rises 5.5% to $95.34 a barrel, while WTI futures for May gain 6.1% to $89 a barrel. Both benchmarks tumbled on Friday after Iran said that transit through the strait was open for commercial traffic. “Oil prices are being whipsawed by developments in the Middle East once again, with what appears to be de-escalation quickly turning to re-escalation,” analysts at ING say. U.S. negotiators are set to arrive in Pakistan later on Monday for a new round of peace talks, though Iran has so far not confirmed that it will be attending any negotiations. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Gold Falls as Hormuz Tensions Send Oil Higher — Market Talk
0722 GMT – Gold prices fall after news that the Strait of Hormuz was closed again sent oil and gas prices higher, reviving concerns over inflation. In early European trading, gold futures in New York are down 1.3% to $4,815.30 a troy ounce. The U.S. dollar, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rises 0.1% to 98.24. “The latest weakness has been driven by renewed dollar strength and fresh concerns about energy-led inflation,” analysts at Saxo Bank say. “Gold and silver remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East given the knock-on impact on the dollar, bond yields, and U.S. rate expectations.” Silver futures fall 2.4% to 79.90 an ounce, while platinum is down 2.3% to $2,092 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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European Energy Stocks Gain as Oil Prices Rebound — Market Talk
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04-20-26 1139ET