TOKYO (Kyodo) — A massive earthquake predicted to occur in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years could cause 1,466 trillion yen ($10 trillion) in economic damage over a period of more than 20 years, a construction industry body said Wednesday.
The latest estimate by the Japan Society of Civil Engineers is based on an analysis of a megaquake and subsequent tsunami along the Nankai Trough, which stretches southwest from the Pacific coast of central Japan. The figure represents a 4 percent increase from its 2018 estimate of 1,410 trillion yen.
In March, the Japanese government estimated that the economic damage from the Nankai quake and the resulting tsunami could reach up to 292 trillion yen in the first year alone.
The association said it would take nearly 22 years for the economy to recover, based on the experience of the quake and tsunami that devastated northeastern Japan in 2011.
Taking countermeasures, such as strengthening roads and levees, costing more than 58 trillion yen, would reduce economic damage by 31 percent, the group said in its latest report.
The association also projected that a megaquake occurring directly beneath Tokyo would cause 1,110 trillion yen in economic damage, an increase from 1,001 trillion yen in its midterm report in March last year, factoring in the rising cost of living.
Similar measures costing more than 21 trillion yen would reduce damage from a quake in Tokyo by 38 percent, the association said.