An additional 8,600-plus units under construction also remain unsold and are expected to come online in the next few years, adding further pressure to an already saturated market.
Developers have started adjusting pricing in response. Average asking prices for unsold units declined to $1,189 per square foot, down 5% from last year and 13% below peak levels seen three years ago. However, resale condos have seen steeper corrections, with comparable units averaging $859 per square foot—25% lower than their 2022 peak.
This divergence has left a historically wide pricing gap of 38% between new and resale units. A temporary full HST rebate announced for one year could reduce new condo prices by about $100,000 on average, narrowing the gap to roughly 20%, though a meaningful disconnect would still remain. Eligibility criteria apply and investors who already own a home may not qualify if it has been their primary residence in recent years.
While oversupply continues to weigh on the market today, future pipeline risks are beginning to emerge. Condo completions, which had surged to nearly 30,000 units annually in 2024 and 2025, are now trending lower. A total of 7,201 units were delivered in Q1, down 21% year-over-year, with full-year completions projected to fall to 21,850 units in 2026 and decline further to just over 13,000 units by 2028.
Beyond that, the development pipeline thins significantly, with only about 2,000 units currently scheduled for completion in 2029—raising the prospect of a future supply shortfall once demand stabilizes.