Halfway through a turbulent year, a clear pattern has emerged across global markets: anything tied to the physical build-out of AI has soared, while several other assets that investors traditionally turn to in uncertain times have stumbled.
War in the Middle East, political upheaval and an oil-price spike formed the backdrop, yet stock markets in several regions still pushed to fresh record highs.
According to Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, companies on the receiving end of the AI spending boom were the standout investments of the first half, while Bitcoin proved “a shocker” and gold lost its shine.
It is, Coatsworth noted, a remarkable run of events for only half a year’s worth of trading.
The most spectacular gains came from an unglamorous corner of the technology world: the firms that make memory chips.
As demand for AI computing collided with tight supply, prices surged and took shares with them. SanDisk led the US market with a gain of over 850% in six months, while Western Digital, Micron Technology and Seagate Technology all more than tripled in value, a pace of return that would ordinarily take many years to achieve.
The driver is the vast quantity of high-speed memory and storage needed to train and run AI systems as the largest technology companies race to expand their data centres.
Other US equities that soared on the back of the AI trade include Intel, Dell, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Applied Materials, which all rose between 150% and 280% year to date.
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The rush also lifted emerging markets, where Asian chipmakers such as TSMC and SK Hynix carry heavy weight, helping South Korea’s KOSPI double in value, Japan’s Nikkei 225 climb roughly 40% and the MSCI Emerging Markets index rise by around 27%.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 gained 7% in the first half of the year, France’s CAC 40 rose 5%, while Germany’s DAX gained 2%. Meanwhile, the MSCI India index fell 5% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 6%.
Notably, the memory rally has begun to unwind in recent days, with several of the same names caught in a sharp technology sell-off.
The fallen favourites, takeovers and the trades that cooled
The flipside was brutal for yesterday’s winners.
Previous AI darlings Meta and Microsoft were left behind, down 14% and 24% respectively on a total-return basis, as heavy AI spending turned the technology giants into more capital-hungry businesses and investors stopped paying a premium for them.